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Update : 2013.5.17 Fri 11:47
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The Future of Thin-Film and Organic Photovoltaics Manufacturing
Chapter One: Introduction
1.1 Background to Report
There are many reasons to believe that thin-film photovoltaics (TFPV) has a prosperous future ahead of it. Most obviously, concerns about the availability and environmental impact of traditional fossil fuel energy supplies are driving demand and investment in alternative energy sources such as TFPV. The combination of government incentives, interest by investors in all things "cleantech," and growing demand from consumers for cheaper alternatives to fossil fuels have sparked a boom in all forms of solar energy. Manufacturers of thin-film photovoltaics have some special reasons to cheer.
TFPV has been capturing a growing share of the PV market for several years now and during 2007 we saw significant new capacity come on stream; Nanosolar produced its first printed CIGS cells (a test of both the much promoted printed PV and the equally well-touted CIGS material,) while First Solar (the dominant supplier of CdTe-based PV) also had a great year.
On the demand side, things have looked good for TFPV too. Some of the segments that it has been attacking are precisely those segments that contain new, higher value-added products: sophisticated building integrated systems or portable chargers for mobile devices, for example. This should impress anyone who associated TFPV with the little strips of PV cells that power up calculators. It should also impress anyone who has attributed TFPV`s success in 2006 mainly to the crystalline silicon shortage; shortage that is now rapidly being forgotten.
1.1.1 Thin-Film Photovoltaics: Lighter and Less Expensive
As TFPV moves beyond the solar calculator to larger markets, its two compelling advantages are low cost and low weight. The low cost in part reflects the cost of materials: while some thin film materials are expensive on a per unit basis, a thin film uses smaller quantities of material than the silicon wafers associated with conventional PV. The low cost also increasingly reflects new manufacturing processes that employ roll-to-roll (R2R) and printing technology.
At least in theory, TFPV should benefit from more efficient, more highly automated manufacturing methods and, of course, as TFPV plants ramp up their output of solar cells, the TFPV business will benefit from both economies of scale and enhanced experience with the newer PV materials.
The ability of TFPV to provide lighter panels is of considerable importance for rooftop systems and for consumer electronics and this is an advantage that all flavors of TFPV share. Beyond that, functional advantages that can be attributed to TFPV vary with the material being used. Some materials seem to be better suited than others to printing or for use indoors, for example.
At the high end, thin film materials lend themselves to the construction of high efficiency multi-junction cells, which stack several component cells in order to capture a larger fraction of the solar spectrum. Not everything is advantageous about thin-film PV though; all of the popular TFPV materials have energy conversion efficiencies that are much less than conventional PV.
Conversion efficiencies higher than conventional PV are possible using compound semiconductors such as GaAs and InP; but these are also a more expensive solution than conventional PV. GaAs is used commercially for aerospace and military markets. InP and other more exotic materials can offer very impressive performance, but are seldom if ever seen outside the lab.
1.1.2 Where Thin-Film Photovoltaics Fits in the Energy Market
The perceived economics of PV has changed radically in the past few years. For decades now, the conventional wisdom was that PV would finally take off when it could supply energy at $1 per watt installed. At this price, it was claimed, PV would become comparable in prices with many other forms of energy and would quickly move beyond the niche markets where it has been established for years, namely providing power for pools and electric fences, homes and commercial buildings in ultrasunny geographies, and in nations and states where large subsidies are available. The problem is that conventional bulk silicon PV has never been anywhere near achieving the kind of price point, where such as transformation would be possible.
In recent years, however, the economic outlook for PV has changed significantly. Higher fuel prices have raised the cost of generating electricity from relatively clean fossil fuels such as natural gas. More importantly, concerns about climate change due to fossil fuel emissions have brought preferential tariffs, government subsidies, and other incentives for renewable energy sources, while reducing the appeal of inexpensive, carbon-rich fuels such as coal.
Proposals such as carbon taxes and hard caps on carbon emissions would further increase fossil fuel costs, further improving the outlook for renewable energy sources. Meanwhile, TFPV has emerged as a lower cost alternative to bulk silicon, with a much more plausible route to the $1 per watt benchmark.
As we have already noted, single junction thin-film PV cells universally fail to match the energy conversion efficiency of conventional PV. A considerable amount of both university research and industrial R&D is therefore focused on improving TFPV efficiencies, but differences between conventional and TFPV remain. While the differences are not gigantic they are significant. One of the reasons that CIGS is getting so much attention at the present time, is that it appears to be a material that seems to have the potential of getting somewhere close to crystalline silicon in terms of efficiency, while preserving many of the advantages of TFPV.
Whether CIGS will meet the expectations of its promoters and investors remains an open question. In general, in remains true that greater areas must be covered by TFPV cells to get the same output when compared to conventional PV. Thus there is an additional cost, but not so much that TFPV isn`t sill typically less costly than an equivalent conventional PV solution.
On the other hand, the world`s record for conversion efficiency is held by thin film GaAs-based multijunction cells. This technology is used to meet the extreme power density requirements of spacecraft. GaAs cells may not be cost effective for building-scale installations, but might find a home in space-constrained devices such as portable chargers.
Several different application scenarios can lead to a competitive advantage for TFPV. If cost is critical, but performance is relatively unimportant, materials such as amorphous silicon and CIGS can offer attractive cost per watt metrics compared to bulk silicon. Conversely, in situations where weight is critical, thin film multijunction cells with concentrating optics can deliver much higher wattage per kilogram than silicon, although such high performance does bring a sharp price premium.
Low cost TFPV is likely to find its best fit in installations where there is plenty of space to deploy solar panels or in geographical areas where there is enough sunlight to generate reasonable amounts of electricity, despite the low conversion efficiencies of TFPV. The portability of certain kinds of TFPV may also open up entirely novel opportunities for TFPV that are simply not available to "clunky" bulk silicon
technology.
The climate in the PV industry these daysand especially in the TFPV sectoris extremely bullish, and understandably so. Sales are booming, investment is pouring in. Many of the pioneers of the PV industry have never seen the boom they have long predicted and are nearing retirement and now see an opportunity to cash in. There are, however, considerable uncertainties and challenges for TFPV that are often papered over in the hype that currently surrounds the PV industry. Roughly speaking, these can be categorized into three areas (1) broad socioeconomic factors, (2) materials and production issues and (3) productization issues.
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
E.1 Thin Film Photovoltaics: The Opportunities
E.1.1 Applications and Markets
E.1.2 TFPV and Global Energy Markets
E.2 Thin-Film Photovoltaics: The Risks
E.2.1 Will Silicon Abundance Hurt the TFPV Business?
E.2.2 How Long Will the PV Boom Last?
E.2.3 Political Risks
E.2.4 Other Concerns
E.3 Technologies and Materials to Watch
E.3.1 Amorphous Silicon
E.3.2 CIGS
E.3.3 CdTe
E.3.4 GaAs
E.4 Firms to Watch
E.5 Summary of Eight-Year Market Projections
E.5.1 What Has Changed Since Last Year
E.5.2 Summary of Forecasts
Chapter One: Introduction
1.1 Background to Report
1.1.1 Thin-Film Photovoltaics: Lighter and Less Expensive
1.1.2 Where Thin-Film Photovoltaics Fits in the Energy Market
1.1.3 TFPV and Socioeconomic Factors
1.1.4 Materials and Production Issues
1.1.5 Productization
1.2 Objectives and Scope of this Report
1.3 Methodology of this Report
1.4 Plan of this Report
Chapter Two: Thin-Film Technology, Materials and Production Strategies
2.1 Evolution and Current State of Photovoltaics Markets
2.2 Thin-Film Silicon
2.2.1 Evolution of Manufacturing Processes for Thin-film Silicon PV
2.2.2 Performance and Expected Improvements
2.2.3 Silicon Inks and Nanocrystalline Silicon
2.2.4 Other Forms of Silicon TFPV
2.2.5 Manufacturers of Amorphous Silicon PV
2.3 CIS/CIGS
2.3.1 Evolution of Manufacturing Processes for CIS/CIGS
2.3.2 Performance and Expected Improvements
2.3.3 Manufacturers of CIGS PV
2.4 CdTe
2.4.1 Evolution of Manufacturing Processes for CdTe
2.4.2 Performance and Expected Improvements
2.4.3 Manufacturers of CdTe PV
2.5 GaAs and Other Compound Semiconductors
2.5.1 Manufacturers of GaAs PV Panels
Chapter Three: Markets for Thin-Film Photovoltaics
3.1 Introduction: Drivers for the Thin-Film PV Market
3.1.1 The Basic Value Proposition of TFPV
3.1.2 TFPV, Geography and Public Policy
3.1.3 Ability to Create New Products
3.2 Large Projects and Central Generation
3.3 Building Integrated Systems
3.3.1 Residential Systems
3.3.2 Commercial and Industrial Buildings
3.3.3 Roofing Systems
3.3.4 Façade Systems
3.3.5 TFPV for BIPV
3.3.6 TFPV and Smart Windows
3.4 Consumer Electronics
3.4.1 PV, TF and Mobile Electronics
3.5 Military and Emergency Applications
3.6 Other Applications
Chapter Four: Eight-Year Forecasts of Thin-Film, Organic and Printable PV
4.1 Forecasting Methodology
4.1.1 Data Sources
4.1.2 Forecasting in a Hyper-Growth Market and Alternative Scenarios
4.1.3 Scope of Forecast
4.1.4 Other Factors Taken into Consideration in the Forecast
4.1.5 How Much Confidence Should You Have in These Forecasts?
4.1.6 Comparison with Previous NanoMarkets Forecasts
4.2 Forecasts of Thin-Film, Organic and Printable PV Markets by Applications
4.2.1 Forecast of Thin-Film Share of Worldwide PV Market
4.3 Forecasts of Application Revenue Broken Out by Material
4.3.1 a-Si
4.3.2 CIS/CIGS
4.3.3 CdTe
4.3.4 GaAs
4.3.5 Other Materials
4.4 Summaries of Eight-Year Thin-Film Film Market Forecasts by Materials
4.5 Summaries of Eight-Year Thin-Film Film Market Forecasts by Applications
4.6 Forecast of Printed PV Markets by Production Technology
Acronyms and Abbreviations Used in this Report
About the Author
List of Exhibits
Exhibit E-1: Claimed Advantages of Thin-Film Approaches
Exhibit E-1: Claimed Advantages of Thin-Film Approaches
Exhibit E-2: Opportunities for TFPV
Exhibit E-3: Summary of Thin-Film Photovoltaics Markets by Material ($ Million)
Exhibit E-4: Summary of Thin-Film Photovoltaics Markets by Application ($ Million)
Exhibit 2-1: List of Materials Used for PV
Exhibit 2-2: Selected Firms Active in the a-Si PV Market
Exhibit 2-3: Manufacturing Approaches Adopted by CIGS Solar Panel Firms
Exhibit 2-4: Firms Active in the CIS/CIGS PV Market
Exhibit 3-1: Top States Installed Grid-Connected PV
Exhibit 3-2: Solar America Cities - 2008
Exhibit 3-3: Selected Solar Panel Products
Exhibit 3-4: Selected Building-Integrated Solar Products
Exhibit 3-5: PV Technology and Applications Matrix for BIPV Products
Exhibit 3-6: Power Consumption and Area of Typical Electronic Devices (1)
Exhibit 3-7: Selected Portable Electronics Products (Consumer and Military)
Exhibit 4-1: Alternative Scenarios for the Evolution of Thin-Film Photovoltaics
Exhibit 4-2: Eight-Year Forecasts of TFPV Market Penetration
Exhibit 4-3: Worldwide production of a-Si Photovoltaics
Exhibit 4-4: Breakout of a-Si Photovoltaics Revenue by Application ($ Millions)
Exhibit 4-5: Worldwide production of CIS/CIGS Photovoltaics
Exhibit 4-6: Breakout of CIS/CIGS Photovoltaics Revenue by Application ($ Millions)
Exhibit 4-7: Short-Term Expansion of CdTe TFPV Capacity
Exhibit 4-8: Worldwide Production of CdTe Photovoltaics
Exhibit 4-9: Breakout of CdTe Photovoltaics Revenue by Application ($ Million)
Exhibit 4-10: Worldwide Production of GaAs Photovoltaics
Exhibit 4-11: Breakout of GaAs Photovoltaics Revenue by Application ($ Million)
Exhibit 4-12: Worldwide Production of "Other" Thin-Film Photovoltaics (Not OPV)
Exhibit 4-13: Breakout of Other Thin Film Photovoltaics Revenue by Application ($ Million)
Exhibit 4-14: Summary of Thin-Film Photovoltaics Markets by Material ($ Million)
Exhibit 4-15: Summary of Thin-Film Photovoltaics Markets by Application ($ Million)
Exhibit 4-16: Printed PV by Material ($ Millions)
Exhibit 4-17: Printed PV by Application ($ Millions)
Today, thin-film PV is one of the most vibrant areas of PV technology and represents a growing share of solar panel production. Initially, the market was driven by the shortage of crystalline silicon, but now that this shortage has eased, thin-film PV has its low-cost, low-weight and flexibility to recommend it. And, the thin-film PV market is moving well beyond amorphous silicon. In particular, CIGS seems set to offer all the virtues of thin-film PV with energy conversion efficiencies that aren`t that much lower than conventional PV, while CdTe solar panels have been flourishing.
This new report NanoMarkets offers a fresh assessment of where the thin-film PV market is headed over the next eight years as well as analysis of the strategies of leading firms active in this space. The materials platforms covered in this report include amorphous silicon, CIGS, CdTe, and GaAs as well as interesting materials and architectures for thin-film PV that are about to emerge from the laboratory. Each of these technologies is reviewed in terms of their key performance characteristics (e.g., conversion efficiencies, costs per watt, etc.) and how these might improve in the future. We also look at the evolution of roll-to-roll, printing and other manufacturing processes that will significantly impact the cost of thin-film PV in the future.
In this report we examine which market segments are likely to generate significant revenues for thin-film PV. Market segments examined in detail include building integrated systems, mobile and wearable computing, central power generation, disposable electronics, portable and emergency power (including battery chargers), and military and aerospace applications. Finally, the report contains detailed eight-year forecasts of PV shipments broken out by technology type and application and discusses how far this new type of photovoltaics can eat into traditional photovoltaics markets.
For details, click http://www.nanomarkets.net/products/prod_detail.cfm?prod=9&id=264
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